Economic incentives and demographic resilience: evaluating fertility policies for sustainable growth

Project no.: P-MIP-25-398

Project funding: Research Council of Lithuania, Researcher Groups projects

Project description:

This research project critically evaluates how fiscal policies influence fertility decisions, particularly focusing on Lithuania and similar European countries experiencing significant demographic decline. The sustained low birth rates observed across these nations pose substantial risks to their economic stability, sustainability of social welfare systems, and long-term demographic balance. In response, governments frequently implement fiscal measures—including tax credits, child benefits, and childcare subsidies—to incentivize fertility. However, the effectiveness of these policies remains uncertain due to complex socio-economic dynamics and potential market adjustments that can dilute intended policy impacts. The project comprises three closely interlinked research studies designed to provide comprehensive insights into fiscal policy effectiveness concerning fertility outcomes. Ultimately, this research contributes robust empirical evidence, new methodological tools, and detailed policy insights essential for developing targeted, efficient, and sustainable fiscal policies aimed at enhancing fertility and demographic resilience.

Principal investigator: Aras Zirgulis

Project research team: Simonas Čepėnas, Benjamin Emmich

Project duration: 2025 11 13 – 2028 11 12

Project coordinator: ISM University of Management and Economics